Two Irons in the fire still offer me real hope, but Town's margin for error is still very slim
Like for most of Ipswich Town’s 2009/10 campaign, the Championship table currently makes for depressing reading.
With 16 games left, Town currently sit third from bottom following Reading’s expected 3-1 victory at Crystal Palace.
A mammoth 15 teams probably still have reason to fear finishing in those three relegation spots but Ipswich’s plight is very clear after a dire display at Peterborough on Tuesday night.
Any talk of fairy-tale rises up the table to make a late dash into the play-offs has finally come to an end.
Ipswich Town are in the heart of a relegation scrap, end of.
Most people are predicting that 50 points might be enough to survive the drop, although a little more could be required in the end.
That means the boys in blue have to accrue another 17 points and probably five more wins.
When you think they have only mustered just six in 30 games, that target currently seems an almighty one.
And it gets worse. Having far too much time on my hands, I have predicted the result of every one of Town’s remaining fixtures and as everyone fears, it is going to be close and probably go down to the wire.
I actually believe that Ipswich will get just five points from their last seven games against the likes of Sheffield United at home and Nottingham Forest and Newcastle on the road – the latter probably coinciding with some form of a promotion party on April 24.
Surely this means the club is doomed and life in League One beckons next season as arch rivals Norwich pass them, going the right way up?
Not so fast. The second-half performance against Posh was arguably the most disappointing of the season and for the first time Town had a relegation-haunted look about them.
But while the final seven matches fill even the most optimistic supporter with dread, the nine matches previous are somewhat easier on paper.
There are trips to fellow strugglers, Sheffield Wednesday and Scunthorpe, and home matches against Bristol City, Barnsley and Scunthorpe again.
Indeed, six points against the Irons over the next couple of weeks could go a long way to ensuring Town’s Championship status.
If the next nine matches are to prove the crucial ones, it means Ipswich Town’s season could be determined by March 27 – in just five week’s time.
In the most unpredictable of leagues, anything could happen in pretty much any game. But Roy Keane and his players are probably starting to pinpoint key matches that will seal the club’s fate.
A draw away at Swansea or Newcastle would be as credible as unlikely. But it is the games against the fellow strugglers that will ultimately determine Town’s season.
It starts on Saturday against Sheffield Wednesday with the Owls just two places and one point above their weekend opponents.
Wednesday go into the game hit by a 2-0 home defeat against Doncaster last time out. Like when the clubs met on a rainy Saturday night in November, the hosts are likely to prove a tough nut to crack and have one of the best goalkeepers in the league in Lee Grant.
I’m predicting a draw before another six-pointer against Scunthorpe on Tuesday night.
Town have to take four points from these two matches or face even bigger trouble than they are in now.
Call me an optimist or worse, but I actually think they will get a draw and then a win – something that randomly could push them as high as 16th in the table.
A win in their next home match, against Bristol City, and suddenly things could seem a whole lot sunnier.
Two games against Blackpool and Cardiff follow and I believe they could end with Town right back in the wrong kind of trouble.
The next four matches will then prove key. Home matches with Scunthorpe again, Barnsley and Plymouth and a trip to Watford.
Nothing short of nine points is required here before a daunting final seven games. It is imperative that Town have pretty much pulled themselves out of trouble before the trip to Swansea on March 27.
Of course, Town fans should not want their season to rest on two matches against Scunthorpe or hoping Crystal Palace can pull off a result against Reading.
But that is the predicament the club finds itself in. It is depressing and slightly embarrassing and it could all come down to the next nine games.
For the record, I believe Ipswich will finish with 56 points and avoid relegation – just. Then the recriminations and post-mortems can begin in earnest.
Here are my predictions in full for Town’s final 16 matches:
Sheffield Wednesday (A) DRAW; Scunthorpe (A) WIN; Bristol City (H) WIN; Blackpool (A) LOSE; Cardiff (H) DRAW; Scunthorpe (H) WIN; Watford (A) DRAW; Barnsley (H) WIN; Plymouth (H) WIN; Swansea (A) LOSE; Reading (H) DRAW; Derby (A) LOSE; Nottingham Forest (A) LOSE; Doncaster (H) WIN; Newcastle (A) LOSE; Sheffield United (H) DRAW.
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